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Save the last poll for me: PPP says Obama, Heller lead in Nevada
In a poll taken over the weekend, Public Policy Polling found President Obama (4 points) and Sen. Dean Heller (2 points) with small leads in Nevada. That doesn't sound too far off, but let's take a deeper look at the poll to see what might be gleaned. Remember, this is a robopoll with self-ID by party and gender, so caveat emptor. Some thoughts:
Poll results: Obama will win Clark County by huge margin
That's what site readers say. Largest number yet answered -- almost 1,000. Thanks for participating. A new poll is up! The question: What will the president's margin of victory be in Clark County?
Obama will win the state, Heller will barely squeak by, Horsford takes CD4 and the GOP will take the state Senate
And I thought Reid-Angle was hard. For two years, I have rested on my laurels after ignoring the public polls, trusting my reporting and gut and predicting Harry Reid would defeat Sharron Angle. Now it’s time to once again leap into the oracular breach, with an even more difficult U.S. Senate race (yes, it’s harder to call this one based on data I have seen) and a state Senate matrix that is as blurry as can be.
Democrats end with 71,000-voter lead in Clark, near dead heat in Washoe
UPDATE: Statewide totals in. 700,000-plus have voted already. Doubt more than 1 million in all will vote. Democrats have a 48,000-vote lead. And the GOP only has a 1.1 percent statewide voter turnout advantage so far. The Republicans did a massive Tuesday effort for Romney to win. A remarkable effort on the last day of early voting in Clark County by the Democrats pushed their lead above the 70,000 mark while another close day in Washoe left that county essentially even.
Adelson, Wynn, Rove and me -- Just imagine it!
I ran into Steve Wynn, Sheldon Adelson and Karl Rove the other night at SW Steakhouse. They generously offered to let me sit down and tape their conversation. That’s just the kind of guys they are. Here’s what transpired:
Democratic lead in Clark above 61,000; Washoe still super-tight
STATEWIDE UPDATE: The Democrats have just under a 41,000-vote statewide lead going into the last day of early voting. Democrats gained about 6,000 voters on the penultimate day of early voting in Clark County while Republicans won Thursday in Washoe County by about 200 votes.
GOP obscenely tries to cast doubt on election's veracity
Something happened today that made me very angry. Now I freely admit: I am irritable this time of year, what with the nattering partisans and obnoxious campaigns. And I’m not known for having the longest fuse on a good day. But nothing – nothing – gets me from serene to volcanic faster than attempts to make people feel as if an election might not be clean. And in an all-too-familiar pattern, national Republicans are casting doubts on the integrity of the election process here. And it’s not just here.
Democrats resort to despicable, hypocritical tactics in legislative races
In 2008, the Democrats took over the state Senate after some outrageous and despicable campaigns to oust Joe Heck and Bob Beers. Thanks to outside spending, mostly by the state Democratic Party, the Republicans fell to a couple of ciphers boosted by a relentless mail campaign featuring ridiculous allegations, especially against Heck, that would have embarrassed people in any other profession.
Democratic pollster says Obama is up 6 in Nevada
Mark Mellman, who hit 2010 on the nose for Harry Reid, says President Obama is up 6 in Nevada, 50-44. His memo on the poll for the Democratic front group, Americans United for Change, is posted here. Key stat: Obama is winning Washoe, which would kill Romney's chances. He's up 11 in Clark, according to Mellman's poll. He's also crushing Romney among Hispanics by a 2-to-1 margin int he poll by Mellman, who is Rep. Shelley Berkley's pollster in the U.S. Senate race.
Democratic lead in Clark at 55,000; Washoe remains tight
With two left in early/mail voting, the Democrats had a solid but not spectacular day (4,000 votes gained) and now lead in Clark County by about 55,000 votes. Meanwhile, the Republicans won Washoe by 300 votes out of 7,700 cast. That county will be close. An interesting phenomenon is there is no second-week surge as there usually is, which makes me wonder whether both parties have exhausted their enthusiastic voters in early voting. We will find out next week. The Clark early/mail numbers: Democrats -- 189,549, or 47.6 percent