BLOG
Romney pollster skeptical about winning Nevada
In a piece that posted on POLITICO a short time ago, reporters Anna Palmer and John Bresnahan write that during a recent conference call, "Romney pollster Neil Newhouse told participants that he 'was skeptical' about the GOP challenger’s chances in Pennsylvania and Nevada."
Eight days of early/mail, voting in the books: Democratic lead in Clark at 44,000
We've settled into a pattern now in early voting in Clark County, with the Democrats gaining about 5,000 voters a day. The total is now at a little more than 44,000 voters over the GOP, with six days remaining. Extrapolation gets the total to 70,000-plus by the end of early vorting, which is solid but not impenetrable, and also assumes the GOP doesn't do better in Week 2 or that the Democrats don't step it up even more.
Democrats lead in Clark after first week is 40,000 voters
UPDATED: SOS has updated statewide numbers. Democrats up 10 in early vote, GOP has slight edge in mail. 350,000-plus have voted, 28 percent of all active voters. The Democrats slowed down a bit on Friday in Clark County, extending their lead by 4,000 ballots, the party's smallest daily lead since the second day of early voting.
Democrats extend lead in Clark to 36,000 voters
It's deja vu all over again. The Democrats extended their lead in Clark County to about 36,000 voters over the Republicans with another solid day and another day where 30,000-plus voters turned out. It now seems reasonable to assume the lead will be 40,000 or so after one week.
NBC/Marist/WSJ: Obama, Heller up 3 in NV among likely voters
The NBC/Marist poll released today shows President Obama up 3 percentage points and Sen. Dean Heller winning by the same margin. If the screen is lifted to include registered voters, the power of the Democratic machine is evident: Obama's lead doubles and Rep. Shelley Berkley catches Heller. Some thoughts: It's a huge sample -- 1,253 registered voters (MOE=+/-2.8 percent) and 1,042 likely voters (MOE=+/-3.0 percent). Lots of cell phone users, too, which is a good sign.
Thursday potpourri: News from CD3 on an ad buy and a debate, Adelson $ to Romney, Kaine blasts Adelson, Sandoval loves Romney, Berkley loves Obama and a new Angle
A SEPTET OF THURSDAY NUGGETS:
Early/mail voting, Day 5: Democrats now have 30,000-vote lead in Clark, still have edge in Washoe
UPDATED: The latest statewide numbers are in. Bottom line: Democrats have a 9-point lead, almost 23,000 in raw votes. The state site is still not updating with Washoe mail ballots, where Republicans have had an advantage. Rural numbers are coming in strongly, with nearly a 2-to-1 advantage for GOP (19,975-11,211). It will be interesting to see if high early voting in rural areas, especially Douglas County, means there will be higher-than-usual cow country turnout or fewer rural voters on Election Day.
My column: Why Romney hasn't surrendered Nevada
Mitt Romney campaigned in Nevada today for the second consecutive day. The question is: Why? Any reasonable analysis of the early voting numbers so far shows that the Democratic machine is crushing the Republicans’ Rube Goldberg contraption. In Clark County, the Democrats have a 25,000-voter lead. Even in Washoe County, the Democrats are holding their own. Why can’t Mitt get the message? As Boz Scaggs once crooned: Why pretend? This is the end. But is it over here in Nevada? The answer: Not quite yet.
Two new polls show Obama ahead; one shows Senate race a dead heat
Some quick thoughts on the new Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling surveys for Nevada released today (caveat: both are robopollers and I am still a bit of a robophobe): Rasmussen: 50-48, Obama
Democratic firewall in Clark County now at 25,000; GOP playing catchup in Washoe
UPDATED AT 9:45 AM: The SOS now has the following state numbers after a morning tally (not all numbers in for Day 4): 210,484 have voted by mail or early voting. 48 percent are Democrats and 35.5 percent are Republicans. The raw vote lead is about 21,000 votes. So if 90 percent of partisans are voting for each guy and let's say Romney is winning indies by 10 points (which would be big), he would still be behind by more than 13,000 votes.