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Democrats increase raw vote lead to 19,000 in urban counties
UPDATED: Democrats have a 1,700-vote lead in absentee ballots returned, so the urban county vote lead is above 20,000 (still don't have Washoe mail count.) Democrats turned out 5,000 more voters in Clark County than the Republicans on Day 3 and the count was about even in Washoe County. Clark saw another robust day of voting as 30,000 people turned out, bringing the three-day total to just under 90,000 voters -- that's more than 20,000 more than had turned out by this time in 2008. The numbers in Clark for Day 3: Democrats: 15,015 (49 percent)
What early voting really means
So what do we know after two days of early voting? Not a lot -- but something. We know turnout was huge during that first weekend -- almost 60,000 voters turned out, 15,000 more than in '08 -- and we know that the second week is usually much bigger than the first (it was 50 percent greater in '08). We know the Democrats are getting out their voters -- better than four years ago, in fact.
After two days, Dems have 13,000 vote lead in Clark
The numbers: D Others R 31,401 9,683 18,106 That's 53-31. In 2008, after two days, the total raw vote lead was 16,000, and it was 60-24. So no wave, but still a substantial Democratic lead, and 7 points above registration. Democrats have turned out well above 2008 (27,000 vs. 31,000) but GOP has done even better relative to four years ago (11,000 vs. 18,000), albeit still well behind.
How Nevada could REALLY matter
I have been writing all season how much Nevada matters in the presidential race. We have been one of a handful of battleground states all year long, and we remain a toss-up in most assessments. (I think the state leans to Obama, but that's me.) I decided to have some fun, though, with the great site 270 to win. I found two ways that Nevada really could matter. Take a look at these scenarios:
Final thoughts on first day of early voting; what to look for next
As the Democrats sound buoyant with their wide margin and the Republicans sound like Custer crowing after Little Big Horn, some more thoughts on Day One of early voting in Clark County:
Democrats massacre Republicans on first day of early voting in urban areas
UPDATE: Democrats also decisively defeated Republicans in first round of absentee ballots, usually a GOP strength, posted in Clark County: 8,976-7,448, or 46-38. So raw number in Clark so far: Dems, 27,364-17,036. That's 52-32, or 5 points above the registration edge.
Why the math is so hard for Romney in Nevada
As early voting begins today, and Republicans continue to spin their tales of voter contacts, let me show you just how difficult Mitt Romney's task is here in Nevada.
Friday potpourri: Sandoval speaks Mitt's name, big rallies in Vegas on first day of early voting, LV chamber supports taxes for schools and Tom Collins gets blasted
Some nuggets to end your week: Nugget No. 1 -- Gov. Brian Sandoval, now heading Team Nevada, sent out a pitch today for the man he endorsed but never seemed enthusiastic about:
Crossroads puts down huge buy in Las Vegas; SuperPACS come in, too
If you don't think we matter in the presidential race and Senate matrix, consider the latest on ad buys, with a whopping one from Crossroads (the Karl Rove group) at the top: ----How big is the Crossroads buy? $300,000 on one Vegas station for one week (Oct. 24-30). Extrapolate that! ----Majority PAC (help for Rep. Shelley Berkley) put down six figures for the last week. ----Priorities USA Action, the Obama-aligned SuperPAC, put down substantial buys, North and South, for the last push.
Mellman: Obama up 8 in Nevada
President Obama leads 51-43 in Nevada, according to a Mark Mellman poll taken this week for Americans United for Change. AUFC is a liberal, union-funded group, which may give GOP folks ammunition. But Mellman has a good track record here. Is he right? We'll find out. Memo linked here.